Weekly Economic Bulletin 26.10.2026 - 30.10.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

▲ increased (green) · ▼ decreased (red) · ━ unchanged (grey). Comparison base: October 23 close (for reserves: week of October 16).

Official Indicators

TurkStat — Releases of October 26, 27, 28 and 30

In the sectoral confidence indices released on October 26, services confidence fell 2.4% from 111.9 to 109.2; the business situation index for the past three months declined 3.1% to 106.8 and the demand index for the past three months fell 3.5% to 105.8. Retail trade confidence rose 1.1% to 112.5, while construction confidence increased 0.4% to 83.3.

In September labour-force data released on October 27, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.4% (August: 7.9%). The number of unemployed rose by 198 thousand to 2.967 million, while employment declined by 49 thousand to 32.445 million; the labour-force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 52.7%. Youth unemployment (ages 15–24) rose 1.6 percentage points to 14.8%, and the labour underutilisation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.2%.

In September preliminary foreign trade data released by TurkStat and the Ministry of Trade on October 28, exports were USD 25.967 billion (+15.3%) and imports USD 31.130 billion (+5.6%); the deficit narrowed to USD 5.163 billion and the export/import coverage ratio rose to 83.4% (September 2025: 76.4%). In January–September, the deficit increased 5.7% to USD 70.967 billion. Excluding energy and non-monetary gold, exports rose 10.5% and imports 6.7%. The September Services Producer Price Index, released the same day, increased 0.17% month-on-month and 33.23% year-on-year.

On October 30, the Economic Confidence Index fell by 3.9% from 101.3 in September to 97.3; among the components, consumer confidence declined 7.7% to 84.8 (this component had also been released separately on October 22), services confidence fell 2.4% to 109.2, and real sector confidence declined 1.4% to 101.1. In tourism statistics, tourism revenue in Q3 2026 increased 5% year-on-year to USD 25.53 billion, while the number of visitors declined 1.6% to 23.26 million. TurkStat’s R&D data released the same day showed 2025 R&D expenditure of TRY 980.4 billion. Border statistics published by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism showed that foreign visitors increased 0.4% year-on-year in September to 6.11 million, while total visitors in January–September declined 1.72%.

CBRT — Releases of October 30

At the October 22 meeting, the one-week repo auction rate had been cut from 37% to 36%, the overnight lending rate from 40% to 39%, and the overnight borrowing rate from 35.5% to 34.5%. The summary released on October 30 states that food and energy prices would push headline inflation higher in October, while the impact of the increase on the underlying trend would remain limited owing to the moderate course of core inflation; it also states that the decline in the underlying trend was confirmed by recent inflation outcomes and leading indicators. The mechanical effect of foundation-university fee increases being spread over August and September also contributed to the decline in September inflation.

In the week of October 23, gross reserves fell by USD 6.91 billion to USD 162.19 billion, net reserves fell by USD 8.7 billion to USD 42.9 billion, and net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD 8.6 billion to USD 30.8 billion. Over two weeks, the decline amounted to USD 9.4 billion in gross reserves and USD 13.5 billion in net reserves excluding swaps.

Ministry of Treasury and Finance — Releases of October 30

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance envisages TRY 912.4 billion of domestic borrowing for November 2026–January 2027 (November 123.4; December 117.5; January 671.5 billion). Domestic debt service in the same period is TRY 946.9 billion (122.7; 117.3; 706.9). Including external debt payments (TRY 133.5 billion), total debt service is TRY 1.08 trillion; 13 bond auctions and 4 direct sales are planned during the period. Non-tax normal revenues in Q3 2026 were TRY 5.516 billion, almost all of which (TRY 5.515 billion) consisted of dividend income.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (October 26–30, 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

Economic Agenda

Ratings

Moody’s downgraded Zorlu Enerji’s long-term corporate family rating from Caa1 to Caa3; the outlook is negative. The stated reason was the request to defer the October interest payment to April 2027.

Companies (ForInvest daily summary, October 30)

Garanti BBVA’s nine-month net profit was TRY 96.62 billion (previous year TRY 83.42 billion; approximately 15.8% increase). TSKB’s nine-month net profit declined to TRY 8.52 billion (previous year TRY 9.30 billion; approximately 8.4% decrease). The World Bank will provide USD 485 million for the green and digital transformation of SMEs; Türk Eximbank and VakıfBank will each receive USD 242.5 million.

Global Context

The Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 3.75–4.00% range on October 28; the decision was taken by a 10–2 vote, with two members seeking a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed had delivered its first rate increase since 2023 in September. On October 29, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and signalled a possible increase.

Energy prices remained elevated; oil rose after the Houthis said they had launched a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery. According to BloombergHT, spot gold fell below USD 4,000 per ounce on October 30 and hit a 52-week low; the report linked the decline to oil-driven inflation concerns, U.S. inflation data and market pricing of roughly a 75% probability of a Fed rate increase in December.

My Views from a Risk Management Perspective

In light of this week’s data, I would particularly draw the attention of company owners and finance and accounting executives to the following points.

Next Week’s Calendar

Table 2 — Week of November 2–6, 2026

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

Official institutions (distribution channel in parentheses)

TurkStat — sectoral confidence indices (via ForInvest), labour force statistics (via Anadolu Agency and ForInvest), foreign trade (via Anadolu Agency), Services Producer Price Index (via Anadolu Agency and BloombergHT), R&D (via Anadolu Agency), Economic Confidence Index (via Anadolu Agency), tourism statistics (via BloombergHT)

Ministry of Trade — September foreign trade data (via ForInvest)

CBRT — MPC meeting summary (via ForInvest and BloombergHT), weekly reserve data (via BloombergHT)

Ministry of Treasury and Finance — domestic borrowing strategy (via BloombergHT) and non-tax normal revenues (via BloombergHT)

Ministry of Culture and Tourism — border statistics (via BloombergHT)

Official Gazette — content lists for October 27–30, 2026 issues (BloombergHT: October 27, October 28, October 30)

Secondary sources (approved secondary sources)

BloombergHT — exchange rates, BIST 100 and gram-gold closes (18:30 market summary: October 30, October 23), sector movements, gold and oil developments

ForInvest (foreks.com) — ECB decision, weekly calendar, economic data calendar, company news, Moody’s Zorlu Enerji assessment, Fed and ECB decisions

Access date: October 31, 2026

Anadolu Agency — Fed decision and vote distribution, AA Finans October inflation expectations survey

This bulletin is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a legal opinion, or regulatory advisory services. The figures are based on data published by the institutions and sources indicated; current legislation and official announcements should be relied upon for decision-making.