Weekly Economic Bulletin 21.09.2026 - 25.09.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

▲ increased (green) · ▼ decreased (red) · ━ no change (gray). Arrows and colors indicate only the direction of the indicator itself and do not imply economic positivity.

Official Indicators

CBRT — Releases of September 22, 23 and 24

According to the Foreign Exchange Assets and Liabilities of Non-Financial Companies data released by the CBRT on September 22, the real sector’s net FX short position rose to USD 210.8 billion in July 2026; the USD 5.0 billion increase compared with June resulted from the USD 7.3 billion growth in FX liabilities exceeding the USD 2.3 billion increase in FX assets. The short-term net FX position, meanwhile, declined by USD 2.2 billion to USD 4.4 billion.

In the Sectoral Inflation Expectations released on September 23, 12-month-ahead expectations were 23.70% for market participants, 32.50% for the real sector and 45.60% for households; the Financial Services Confidence Index released on the same day increased by 8.0 points from August to 158.4.

According to BloombergHT’s reporting of the Weekly Flow Interest and Profit Rate Statistics released on September 24, in the week of September 18 the TRY deposit rate stood at 37%, the same level as the CBRT’s 37% weighted average funding cost, while the TRY commercial loan rate was 41.1%. Accordingly, the commercial loan rate was approximately 4.1 percentage points above both the funding cost and the deposit rate.

According to the Securities Statistics released on the same day, foreign investors made net sales of USD 109.8 million in equities and approximately USD 116 million in debt instruments during the week of September 18; in the previous week, net purchases of USD 277.7 million in equities and USD 151 million in debt instruments had been recorded. In the weekly reserve data, the CBRT’s total reserves declined by USD 4.3 billion to USD 174.4 billion; gross foreign-exchange reserves fell by USD 5.6 billion to USD 62.8 billion, while gold reserves rose by USD 1.3 billion to USD 111.6 billion.

TurkStat — Releases of September 22 and 24

The Consumer Confidence Index released by TurkStat on September 22 increased by 1.1 points from August to 91.9 in September. In the sectoral confidence indices released on September 24, the services sector index remained unchanged at 111.9, the retail trade index rose by 1.1% to 111.3, and the construction sector index declined by 0.2% to 83.0.

BRSA and CMB — Releases of September 24

According to the weekly banking-sector data released by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) on September 24, during the week of September 18 deposits increased by TRY 388.1 billion to TRY 32.55 trillion, non-performing loans rose by TRY 9.3 billion to TRY 876.5 billion, and shareholders’ equity increased by TRY 61.6 billion to TRY 6.06 trillion; consumer loans decreased by TRY 23.9 billion and credit-card receivables by TRY 57.2 billion. Total loans declined by TRY 32.1 billion to TRY 28.24 trillion.

In the weekly bulletin published by the Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (CMB) on the same day, capital increases of TRY 1.3 billion for Kiler Holding and TRY 350 million for Ayes Çelik Hasır ve Çit Sanayi were approved.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (September 21–25, 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

PROFESSIONAL

Financial Crimes Investigation Board General Communiqué (Serial No. 34)

Official Gazette: September 23, 2026, No. 33379 · Institution: Ministry of Treasury and Finance (Financial Crimes Investigation Board – MASAK) · Effective date: September 23, 2026 (date of publication)

The Communiqué regulates urgent measures to be taken under Law No. 5549 concerning persons, entities and organizations subject to United Nations Security Council decisions. The decisions are transmitted to MASAK through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; transactions intended to be carried out by persons and entities on the lists are required to be promptly reported and postponed by obliged parties. Since the definition of obliged parties covers not only banks and financial institutions but also other professional groups within the scope of Law No. 5549, screening customer transactions against the relevant lists is becoming an integral part of compliance processes.

SECTORAL

Communiqué Amending the Financial Crimes Investigation Board General Communiqué (Serial No. 5) (Serial No. 33)

Official Gazette: September 23, 2026, No. 33379 · Institution: Ministry of Treasury and Finance (Financial Crimes Investigation Board – MASAK) · Effective date: September 23, 2026 (date of publication)

The monetary thresholds in Articles 2.2.7, 2.2.9 and 2.2.11 of General Communiqué Serial No. 5, which regulates simplified measures, were increased: the TRY 10,000 threshold was raised to TRY 20,000, the TRY 25,000 threshold to TRY 50,000, the TRY 2,750 thresholds to TRY 5,500 and TRY 6,500, and the TRY 1,000 threshold to TRY 2,500. As the thresholds were increased by approximately two to two and a half times, the scope of transactions for which simplified measures may be applied expands and the compliance burden on obliged parties for transactions below these thresholds decreases. The increases in monetary thresholds do not eliminate suspicious transaction reporting or other risk-based compliance obligations.

Economic Agenda

Credit Ratings

There was no scheduled sovereign credit-rating review for Türkiye this week. The next review on the 2026 calendar is S&P’s review on October 16; Moody’s and Fitch completed their second reviews of the year in July.

Foreign Investor Flows

According to the weekly Securities Statistics released by the CBRT on September 24, foreign investors recorded net sales of USD 109.8 million in equities and approximately USD 116 million in debt instruments during the week of September 18. In the previous week, net purchases of USD 277.7 million in equities and USD 151 million in debt instruments had been recorded.

Companies

The mandatory tender offer by Heidelberg Materials for Akçansa Çimento shares, approved in the CMB bulletin dated September 16, is being conducted during September 23–October 6, 2026; the offer price is the higher of TRY 260.25 per TRY 1 nominal share and the TRY equivalent of USD 5.627434. On September 21, the CMB authorized Daiichi Elektronik to amend its articles of association for an initial public offering and to transition to the registered capital system. In debt-instrument issuances, İnfo Yatırım issued TRY 2.3 billion, while QNB Finansbank and Yapı Kredi issued debt instruments of USD 60 million and USD 20 million, respectively, in international markets. Batıliman Liman İşletmeleri withdrew from the planned merger process.

Global Backdrop

In the Interim Economic Outlook published on September 23, the OECD lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from 3.1% in June to 2.7%; the 2027 growth forecast was reduced from 3.8% in June to 3.6%, while inflation is expected to be 31.5% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027. The Fed’s next meeting will take place on October 27–28; no policy-rate decision was announced by either the Fed or the ECB during this week. President Erdoğan held numerous bilateral meetings in New York on September 22 on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Status and Developments Regarding Investment Funds

Implementation of the CMB’s September 17 liquidation decision covering 131 funds belonging to seven portfolio management companies (Tera, A1 Capital, Atlas, Bulls, Hedef, Pardus and Pusula) began to become clearer this week. With its decision dated 20.09.2026 and numbered 59/1710, announced on September 21, the Board extended the maximum liquidation period under Article (A/8) of the liquidation procedures and principles from 3 months to 6 months; the stated reason was to enable fund portfolios to be sold under the most favorable conditions possible in light of market conditions, and it was noted that the process could be completed earlier depending on conditions. On September 23, it was announced that, according to Central Registry Agency records, 455,758 unique investors held units in the funds subject to liquidation.

According to weekly statistics released by the CBRT on September 24, the size of money market funds declined from TRY 2.14 trillion to TRY 1.68 trillion in the week of September 18; the approximately TRY 456 billion (21.4%) decline was the sharpest weekly fall since March 2025. In the same week, banking-sector deposits increased by TRY 388.1 billion. Over the week as a whole, investment funds lost an average of 2.36% and pension funds 0.33%, while money market funds returned 0.66%.

The economic effects of the liquidation are being monitored through three channels. Through the liquidity channel, because trading in fund units has been suspended in 131 funds, investors’ access to liquidity in respect of the fund units subject to liquidation is restricted until the portfolios are converted into cash and the liquidation balances are distributed; extending the maximum period to 6 months may prolong this wait while reducing the risk that assets lose value through large-scale sales over a short period. Through the market channel, spreading sales of equities and debt instruments in fund portfolios over time may limit sudden selling pressure on these assets.

Through the confidence channel, the fact that outflows from money market funds coincided with an increase in deposits during the same week is consistent with the possibility of a shift from funds to deposits; however, the available data do not directly measure this transition. As of September 23, it was reported that the total portfolio size of the funds subject to liquidation had not yet been calculated.

My Views from a Risk Management Perspective

In this section, I assess the week’s data from the perspective of a Sworn-in CPA and share my views and recommendations regarding risk management. The aim is to bring the risks behind the figures onto the corporate agenda.

Next Week’s Calendar

Table 2 — September 28–October 2, 2026

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

Official institutions

Approved secondary sources (market-data providers)

This bulletin is for information purposes only; the data contained herein have been compiled from official institutions and approved secondary sources and do not constitute investment advice.