Weekly Economic Bulletin 05.10.2026 - 09.10.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

▲ indicator increased · ▼ indicator decreased · ━ unchanged. Green = increase, red = decrease, gray = unchanged.

Official Indicators

TurkStat — Releases of October 5, 8 and 9

September CPI, released on October 5, was 1.84% month-on-month, 29.73% year-on-year, and 24.32% year-to-date; the 12-month average was 31.49%. Domestic PPI (D-PPI) was 2.07% month-on-month (August: 2.57%) and 27.38% year-on-year; manufacturing prices rose 2.32% monthly and 29.09% annually, while energy increased 3.55% monthly. Among the main expenditure groups, food fell 0.20% month-on-month, while transportation rose 2.79%, housing 2.71%, and education 14.19%.

In the September real-return data released on October 8, Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS) delivered the highest monthly real return: 1.18% based on D-PPI and 1.40% based on CPI. The real return on gross deposits was 0.96% based on D-PPI and 1.19% based on CPI.

Industrial production for August, released on October 9, declined by 1.0% month-on-month (July: −0.9%) and 1.9% year-on-year (July: −0.2%); according to BloombergHT, this was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. On an annual basis, manufacturing fell 2.5%, while mining rose 1.7% and electricity-gas increased 1.3%. On the same day, the Construction Cost Index rose by 2.04% month-on-month and 29.59% year-on-year in August; materials increased 28.72% annually and labour 31.20%.

CBRT and BRSA — Releases of October 8

According to the CBRT’s data for the week of October 2, released on October 8, gross reserves declined from USD 171.2 billion to USD 167.4 billion (−3.8); USD 2.58 billion of the decline came from gold and USD 1.24 billion from foreign-exchange reserves. Net reserves stood at USD 53.8 billion (+0.4), while net reserves excluding swaps were USD 37.9 billion (−2.0). FX deposits adjusted for parity effects increased by USD 423 million for individuals and USD 428 million for corporates, for a total increase of USD 851 million.

In the Securities Statistics, non-residents recorded net equity sales of USD 189.9 million in the week of October 2 (previous week: net purchases of USD 358.6 million); net bond sales were approximately USD 0.5 billion.

According to BRSA weekly data dated October 2, total loans were TRY 28,642.3 billion (weekly +240.0), while total deposits were TRY 32,364.7 billion (weekly −310.6). Consumer loans were TRY 3,502.0 billion (housing 842.5, vehicle 42.1, personal 2,617.3); credit-card receivables were TRY 3,533.6 billion (installment 1,331.3, non-installment 2,202.2). Non-performing loans stood at TRY 914.6 billion (+26.8), and specific provisions at TRY 679.2 billion.

Ministry of Treasury and Finance and CMB — Releases of October 5, 6 and 7

On October 5, the Treasury borrowed through a 2-year bond with a 707-day maturity (18% coupon) at a simple yield of 36.53% and a compound yield of 39.87%; and through a 5-year bond with a 1,652-day maturity (16.63% coupon) at a simple yield of 35.55% and a compound yield of 38.71%. On October 6, an 8-year fixed-coupon bond (13.85% coupon) was issued at a simple yield of 33.59% and a compound yield of 36.40%; a 4-year TLREF-indexed bond was also sold on the same day.

In the September Treasury cash balance released on October 7, cash revenues were TRY 1,331.1 billion, cash expenditures TRY 1,798.3 billion, and the cash deficit TRY 467.2 billion (versus a TRY 49.8 billion surplus in August). Primary expenditures were TRY 1,524.4 billion, interest payments TRY 273.9 billion, and the primary deficit TRY 193.3 billion.

In the Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (CMB) Weekly Bulletin No. 2026/69 dated October 7, 21 individuals were banned from trading for two years as part of the ODINE investigation; all licenses of 15 individuals were revoked, and criminal complaints were decided to be filed against 21 individuals under Article 107/1 of the Capital Markets Law. The bulletin contained no public-offering approval or administrative monetary penalty.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (October 5–9, 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

Economic Agenda

Foreign Investor Flows

According to the CBRT’s Securities Statistics dated October 8, non-residents were net sellers of USD 189.9 million in equities in the week of October 2; in the previous week, they had recorded net purchases of USD 358.6 million. Net bond sales were approximately USD 0.5 billion and, according to BloombergHT, bond sales continued for a third consecutive week.

Companies and Regulatory Developments

In its October 7 bulletin, the CMB approved for Akbank an issuance ceiling of TRY 30 billion for structured debt instruments, TRY 100 billion for bonds/bills, and USD 4 billion for green debt instruments to be issued abroad; ceilings of TRY 15.15 billion for İş Faktoring and TRY 5 billion for QNB were also set. Galata Menkul’s capital was increased from TRY 70 million to TRY 200 million.

Status and Developments Regarding Investment Funds

According to reports dated October 9, a legislative proposal concerning the funds that the CMB decided to liquidate on September 17, 2026 is being submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (GNAT). Under the proposal, the Central Securities Depository of Türkiye (MKK) will calculate each investor’s net investment amount by indexing cash inflows and outflows to the average of CPI and D-PPI and applying the first-in, first-out (FIFO) method. Interim payments will be capped at TRY 1 million; interim payments will not be indexed to inflation.

Under the proposal, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF) may be appointed as trustee for seized assets that cannot be returned to the fund and may sell them without waiting for the outcome of court proceedings; proceeds will be held in a separate recovery account on a fund-by-fund basis. Primary responsibility will rest with the portfolio management company and, if that proves insufficient, with persons to be determined by the CMB.

According to MKK data, foreign investors’ fund portfolios declined from USD 11.1 billion at the end of August to USD 5.0 billion at the end of September (−USD 6.1 billion); total fund size fell from TRY 11 trillion to TRY 9.5 trillion.

My Views from a Risk Management Perspective

The following assessments are my personal views as a Sworn-in CPA in light of this week’s data.

Next Week’s Calendar

Table 2 — Expected developments during October 12–16, 2026

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

This bulletin is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or regulatory advisory services. The data have been compiled from the official and secondary sources specified above and reflect information available as of the publication date.