Weekly Economic Bulletin 28.09.2026 - 02.10.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

Arrows and colors indicate the direction of each indicator: ▲ green = increased · ▼ red = decreased · ━ gray = unchanged.

Official Indicators

TurkStat — Releases of September 29 and 30

The Economic Confidence Index increased by 0.7% month-on-month to 101.3 in September (August: 100.6), reaching its highest level since June 2023. Among the sub-indices, consumer confidence rose to 91.9 (+1.3%), retail trade confidence to 111.3 (+1.1%), the real sector index edged up 0.1% to 102.5, services remained unchanged at 111.9, and construction declined 0.2% to 83.0.

In the August labour force data released on September 30, the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8%; the number of unemployed declined by 106 thousand to 2.74 million, the employment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.4%, and youth unemployment (ages 15–24) fell by 1.1 percentage points to 13%. On the same day, August foreign trade data showed exports rising 8.1% to USD 23.467 billion and imports increasing 10.5% to USD 28.706 billion; the foreign trade deficit widened to USD 5.239 billion (+22.3%), while the export-to-import coverage ratio declined to 81.7% (August 2025: 83.5%). Excluding energy and non-monetary gold, the coverage ratio was 95.0%. The Services Producer Price Index for August rose 2.87% month-on-month and 33.29% year-on-year.

CBRT — Releases of October 1

In the week of September 25, reserves declined to USD 171.2 billion gross (−3.2), USD 53.4 billion net (−2.5), and USD 39.9 billion net excluding swaps (−3.2). According to the Securities Statistics, during September 21–25 non-residents, adjusted for price and exchange-rate effects, purchased USD 358.6 million of equities while selling USD 409.9 million of Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS); the combined net movement in equities and GDDS was −USD 51.3 million. The CBRT’s total domestic-market figure was −USD 485.7 million. In the previous week (September 14–18), equities were −USD 109.8 million and the total domestic-market figure was −USD 558.4 million.

In the CBRT’s money and banking data, total deposits increased by 0.33% week-on-week (TRY 110.4 billion) to approximately TRY 34 trillion. Since the CBRT and BRSA deposit series differ in scope and classification, the amounts are not directly comparable. FX deposits adjusted for parity effects rose by USD 1.342 billion (individuals +USD 1.024 billion, corporates +USD 0.318 billion). Money market funds declined by TRY 456 billion in the week of September 18 and by TRY 12 billion in the week of September 25, falling by TRY 468 billion over two weeks to TRY 1.667 trillion.

Ministry of Treasury and Finance and BRSA — Releases of September 30 and October 1

On September 30, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance (MoTF) announced its domestic borrowing strategy for October–December: total borrowing of TRY 630.7 billion (October 414.8; November 110.4; December 105.5) and principal and interest payments of TRY 676.6 billion (October 436.6; November 122.7; December 117.3). Debt service for the period exceeds planned borrowing by TRY 45.9 billion.

In the weekly banking-sector bulletin published by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) on October 1 (as of September 25), total loans stood at TRY 28.4 trillion, sector deposits at TRY 32.675 trillion (+TRY 122.1 billion), consumer loans at TRY 3.485 trillion (housing 838.9; vehicle 42.4; personal 2,604.0 billion TRY), and individual credit-card receivables at TRY 3.463 trillion (installment 1.341; non-installment 2.122 trillion TRY). Shareholders’ equity increased by TRY 86.1 billion to TRY 6.142 trillion.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (September 28 – October 2, 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

Economic Agenda

Credit Ratings

No scheduled or unscheduled sovereign rating decision on Türkiye was published during the week. Moody’s: Ba3/Stable (no rating action was taken in the periodic review completed in July); S&P: BB−/Stable (affirmed in April); Fitch: BB−/Stable (affirmed in July). S&P’s next scheduled rating action is on October 16.

Foreign Investor Flows

According to CBRT data, non-residents purchased USD 358.6 million of equities and sold USD 409.9 million of Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS) during the week of September 21–25; the combined total for equities and GDDS was −USD 51.3 million, while the CBRT’s total domestic-market figure was −USD 485.7 million. In the previous week (September 14–18), equities were −USD 109.8 million and the total domestic-market figure was −USD 558.4 million.

Global Backdrop

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29 thousand in September (expectation: 90 thousand); the unemployment rate was 4.2% (expectation: 4.1%), while the August increase was revised down from 162 thousand to 133 thousand. The December Brent crude contract rose 2.5% to USD 100.49 on October 1; in Anadolu Agency reporting, the increase was mentioned alongside uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations.

Developments in the Fund Crisis

Interim payment (CMB, September 30). Investors who completed reconciliation procedures in funds managed by Tera, Pusula, Atlas and Hedef will receive interim payments to be offset against their receivables at the end of the liquidation. Those with net investments below TRY 1 million will receive the full amount; those above that threshold will receive up to TRY 1 million.

Order of liquidation (CMB, September 30, Decision No. 64/1770). In funds managed by A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus, funds whose names include “money market” will be liquidated first, in descending order by number of investors. Funds excluded from liquidation but closed to trading may be reopened simultaneously on TEFAS and other channels; the date will be determined by the portfolio management companies.

Voluntary restitution (CMB, October 1). Separate restitution accounts were opened for 139 funds, together with one general equity restitution account, to allow those who obtained excessive gains to return them voluntarily; deposited amounts will enter only the liquidation assets of the relevant fund. The capital-markets activities of Tera Yatırım Menkul Değerler were suspended, and the licenses of three individuals were permanently revoked.

Outflows from money market funds (CBRT, October 1). Fund size declined by TRY 456 billion in the week of September 18 and by TRY 12 billion in the week of September 25; over two weeks, the total decrease amounted to TRY 468 billion, bringing fund size down to TRY 1.667 trillion.

My Views from a Risk Management Perspective

Reading this week’s data from the perspective of a Sworn-in CPA, four issues stand out for company executives.

Next Week’s Calendar

Table 2 — Week of October 5–9, 2026

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

This bulletin is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, tax advice or a legal opinion. The data have been compiled from the institutions and sources specified above.