Weekly Economic Bulletin 24.08.2026 - 28.08.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

FRIDAY, 28 AUGUST 2026 CLOSE · COMPARISON: FRIDAY, 21 AUGUST 2026 CLOSE

Colour key: green and ▲: the indicator increased during the period     red and ▼: decreased     grey and ━: unchanged. Colours and arrows indicate only the direction of movement; the economic assessment of the movement is provided in the executive summary and commentary boxes.

Official Indicators

TCMB — Publications of 24 and 27 August

The week began on Monday, 24 August with three separate statistical releases from the TCMB. In the Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, the twelve-month-ahead annual inflation expectation increased by 0.64 percentage points to 45.58% for households and by 0.30 percentage points to 32.80% for the real sector, while it declined by 0.26 percentage points to 23.69% for market participants; the gap between households and market participants reached 21.89 percentage points, and the share of households expecting inflation to decline over the next twelve months fell by 0.78 percentage points to 16.85%. The Financial Services Confidence Index released on the same day fell by 4.6 points to 150.4; among its subcomponents, insurance, reinsurance and pension funds increased by 3.5 points, while financial services excluding these activities declined by 5.3 points. In the third release of the day, the statistics on Foreign Exchange Assets and Liabilities of Non-Financial Companies showed that, as of June 2026, the real sector's net FX position deficit widened by USD 2.342 billion in one month to USD 205.755 billion; assets declined by USD 140 million (domestic bank deposits fell by USD 1.597 billion, while direct investments abroad increased by USD 1.032 billion), whereas liabilities increased by USD 2.202 billion. On the liabilities side, the derivatives item rose by USD 3.571 billion, while short-term domestic loans declined by USD 995 million; together with movements in other items, the net increase remained at USD 2.202 billion. On Thursday, 27 August, three weekly series were released: in money and banking statistics, total reserves increased by USD 4.949 billion to USD 188.449 billion (gross FX reserves declined by USD 938 million to USD 74.228 billion, while gold reserves increased by USD 5.886 billion to USD 114.221 billion); in securities statistics, foreign investors made net purchases of USD 150.2 million in equities for the third consecutive week; and in weekly flow interest rate statistics, the TRY commercial loan rate increased by 79 basis points to 53.94%, while the TRY deposit rate declined by 4 basis points to 46.42% and the TRY consumer loan rate fell by 123 basis points to 62.06%.

TÜİK — Publications of 25, 27 and 28 August

TÜİK began the week on Tuesday, 25 August with sectoral confidence indices: the seasonally adjusted services confidence index declined by 0.1% to 111.9, the retail trade confidence index fell by 0.8% to 110.1, and the construction confidence index decreased by 0.4% to 83.1; although monthly declines were recorded in all three sectors, the most pronounced decrease occurred in retail trade. The provisional results of the 2025 Annual Industry and Service Statistics published on 27 August provided an updated snapshot of Türkiye's enterprise universe: the total number of enterprises was calculated at 4,016,059, total turnover at TRY 124.816 trillion, production value at TRY 71.351 trillion and employment at 20.122 million people. In terms of the number of enterprises, services accounted for 48.4%, trade for 31.6% and manufacturing for 12.4%, while the ranking was reversed in turnover, with trade accounting for 46.8%, manufacturing 28.5% and services 17.8%; in production value, manufacturing recorded TRY 27.886 trillion, trade TRY 9.134 trillion and construction TRY 7.976 trillion, and it was announced that final results would be published in December 2026. Three bulletins were released on Friday, 28 August. In the July foreign trade statistics, exports increased by 2.9% year-on-year to USD 25.623 billion, while imports rose by 5.1% to USD 32.966 billion; the deficit widened by 13.6% to USD 7.343 billion and the export-to-import coverage ratio declined from 79.4% to 77.7%. In the January-July period, exports amounted to USD 161.539 billion, imports to USD 222.085 billion and the deficit to USD 60.545 billion; the fact that the deficit excluding energy and non-monetary gold remained at USD 2.407 billion showed that most of the deficit originated from these two items. Manufacturing accounted for 94.4% of exports, with Germany being the largest export destination at USD 2.042 billion, while China was the largest source of imports at USD 5.040 billion. The July Services Producer Price Index released on the same day increased by 32.77% annually and 3.94% monthly, with the twelve-month average standing at 34.71%; transportation and storage at 37.26% and professional, scientific and technical activities at 36.18% were prominent among the sub-sectors. The August Economic Confidence Index increased by 0.8% from 99.8 to 100.6, moving above the reference value of 100 and into the optimism zone.

BDDK and SPK — Publications of 27 and 28 August

In the data for the week of 21 August published by the BDDK on 28 August, the balance of FX-protected deposits fell to zero; following the final weekly decline of TRY 4 million, the instrument introduced at the end of 2021 to redirect foreign-exchange demand toward Turkish lira deposits was fully phased out. In the same bulletin, total loans increased by TRY 50.984 billion week-on-week to TRY 27.734 trillion, while total deposits including interbank deposits rose by TRY 506.469 billion to TRY 32.316 trillion. Loans under legal follow-up increased by TRY 5.663 billion to TRY 838.968 billion, while provisions set aside for these receivables remained at TRY 623.576 billion; accordingly, the provisioning ratio is calculated at 74.3%. Consumer loans reached TRY 3.424 trillion, of which TRY 2.559 trillion consisted of personal loans, TRY 823 billion of housing loans and TRY 41 billion of vehicle loans; the balance of individual credit cards reached TRY 3.353 trillion, approaching the size of total consumer loans. The Capital Markets Board published its weekly bulletin No. 2026/53 on Thursday, 27 August. On the Treasury and Ministry of Finance side, no statistical release or borrowing transaction took place during the week of 24–28 August; all ten transactions scheduled for August under the August–October 2026 Domestic Borrowing Strategy had been completed between 10 and 20 August, while publication of the September–November strategy was left to the last business day of the month, 31 August.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (24–28 August 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

Economic Agenda

Credit Ratings

No rating action took place during the bulletin week. The most recent action was by Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR), which on 21 August affirmed Türkiye's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer ratings at BB with a stable outlook; this rating stands one notch above the BB- ratings assigned by Fitch and S&P. Türkiye's previous affirmation by JCR was dated 1 September 2025. The current position among other agencies is as follows: Moody's maintains its Ba3 rating with a stable outlook and made no change to the rating or outlook in its periodic review completed on 25 July; the agency revised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.4%, its year-end inflation forecast to 29%, and projected the current-account deficit to widen from 1.9% of GDP to approximately 3.5%, while highlighting the low central-government debt burden of 23.7% as a key credit strength. Fitch affirmed its BB- rating with a stable outlook in its scheduled review on 17 July; the agency had revised the outlook from positive to stable in an unscheduled action on 10 April 2026, citing the significant decline in foreign-exchange reserves since the outbreak of the Iran war. S&P affirmed the BB- rating with a stable outlook in its 17 April review and will conduct its second review of the year on 16 October. The Japanese agency R&I upgraded Türkiye from BB- to BB on 27 February. The remaining scheduled reviews during the year are 16 October for S&P, 23 October for Scope Ratings and 13 November for Capital Intelligence; Fitch has no remaining date on its 2026 calendar.

Foreign Investor Flows

According to the securities statistics for the week of 21 August published by the TCMB on 27 August, foreign investors made net equity purchases of USD 150.2 million for the third consecutive week, purchased USD 146 million of private-sector bonds, and recorded a limited net sale of USD 1.2 million in government domestic debt securities. The equity portfolio stock increased from USD 41.72 billion to USD 43.11 billion; of this USD 1.39 billion increase, USD 150.2 million came from net purchases, while the remainder resulted from the rise in BIST valuations. The private-sector bond stock increased from USD 4.50 billion to USD 4.63 billion, while the government bond stock declined slightly from USD 17.80 billion to USD 17.79 billion. In the previous week, equity purchases had reached USD 176.1 million, the highest level in the last month and a half, whereas net sales of USD 306.2 million in government bonds had ended a nine-week purchasing streak.

Company News

A large number of capital-market transactions were announced on Borsa İstanbul during the week. On the capital increase side, CASA increased its capital by 104.08% through a rights issue to TRY 10 million while announcing the termination of its acquisition talks regarding Olimar Madencilik; CWENE is increasing its capital by 53.02% through a bonus issue to TRY 1.65 billion, while NETAŞ is increasing its capital by 300% through a rights issue to TRY 259.5 million. EFOR, DENGE and PSGYO announced private-placement capital increases targeting proceeds of TRY 3 billion, TRY 3 billion and TRY 7.5 billion, respectively. On the debt-instrument side, KGYO issued TRY 225 million of 106-day financing bills, while OTKAR issued TRY 2 billion of 364-day financing bills; YKBNK issued a USD 20 million bond with a maturity of 1,280 days abroad, while KGYO and HEDEF applied to the SPK for authorisation to issue debt instruments of up to TRY 1.5 billion and TRY 10 billion, respectively. On the public offering side, BKRGY and Intetra Teknoloji (INTET) collected demand. Prior to the week, on 17 August, the 54-year-old fuel distribution company Fikret Petrol had been granted a three-month temporary concordat period by the Istanbul 3rd Commercial Court of First Instance; the court prevented the initiation of new enforcement proceedings, suspended existing proceedings, and extended the maturities of letters of guarantee for the duration of the concordat. Other corporate developments announced during the week included the TRY 2.12 billion administrative fine imposed on CCOLA by the İzmir Customs Directorate, the USD 555 million sales order received by BRSAN through its US subsidiary, and the EUR 10.3 million contract signed by ASUZU with the Presidency of Defence Industries.

Global Outlook

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first speech as Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium on 28 August. Following a more hawkish-than-expected message, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting jumped to 57.5%, the dollar index rose to 99.65, and ounce gold broke below its 200-day moving average of USD 4,525, ending the day around USD 4,455 with a 3.3% loss and closing the week down 3.2%. The Fed's current policy rate stands in the 3.50–3.75% range, and the fact that three members voted for a rate hike at the previous meeting had already made the hawkish divergence within the committee visible; the next FOMC meeting will be held on 15–16 September. The European Central Bank did not meet in August; its deposit facility rate stands at 2.25%, its main refinancing rate at 2.40% and its marginal lending facility rate at 2.65%. On 11 June, the ECB implemented its first rate increase in three years, by 25 basis points, after energy prices linked to the Iran conflict pushed euro-area inflation to 3.2% in May, and then kept rates unchanged at its 23 July meeting; its next meeting will be held on 9–10 September in Berlin, exceptionally hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank. On the commodities side, Brent crude ended the week down 5.5% at USD 89.18 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz returned to approximately 80% of pre-war levels and Gulf exports increased to 15–16 million barrels per day. On the EU front, negotiations on the modernisation of the Customs Union, raised by Trade Minister Ömer Bolat in Brussels on 17 July, have not yet begun due to objections from certain member states; of the USD 233 billion bilateral trade volume reached in 2025, approximately USD 62 billion is accounted for by the automotive sector.

Next Week's Calendar

31 AUGUST – 4 SEPTEMBER 2026

Table 2 — Economic and regulatory calendar for next week

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

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MARKET AND NEWS SOURCES

This bulletin has been prepared solely for general information purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The data contained in the bulletin have been compiled from publicly available sources.