Weekly Economic Bulletin 07.09.2026 - 11.09.2026

Executive Summary

Market Dashboard

Arrow direction indicates the weekly change: ▲ increased (green) · ▼ decreased (red) · ━ unchanged (grey). The color indicates only the direction of change, not whether the movement is economically positive or negative.

Sparkline: month-end closes for USD/TRY over the last 12 months (September 2025–August 2026).

Official Indicators

CBRT — releases of 10 and 11 September

On 10 September, three separate weekly statistical releases were published alongside the MPC decision. Total reserves fell by USD 3.95 billion in the week ending 4 September to USD 184.25 billion; most of the decline stemmed from a USD 3.25 billion fall in gold reserves, while the decrease in foreign-exchange reserves remained limited (USD 703 million). In the same week, total bank deposits declined by TRY 504.4 billion to TRY 33.2 trillion, while total credit volume increased by approximately TRY 87 billion to TRY 27.4 trillion. Over the same period, non-residents made net equity sales of USD 647.6 million and net GDDS purchases of USD 156.7 million; because the two items moved in opposite directions, the foreign outflow appears to have been confined to equities, while debt securities showed the opposite trend.

According to the Weekly Flow Interest and Profit Rate Statistics released on 11 September, the commercial loan rate was 40.8%, while the TRY deposit rate (1-3 month maturity) was 37.3%. The spread between the policy rate (37%) and the deposit rate (37.3%) was only 0.3 percentage points, whereas the spread between the commercial loan rate and the deposit rate reached 3.5 percentage points. Balance of Payments data for July released the same day showed a current account surplus of USD 36 million; excluding gold and energy, the surplus rises to USD 4,972 million. In the September Survey of Market Participants, the year-end CPI inflation expectation increased to 29.61% (previous survey: 29.43%) and the 12-month-ahead inflation expectation rose to 23.70%; the year-end USD/TRY expectation was 51.57 TRY, while the current-year GDP growth expectation was announced at 3.0%.

TurkStat — releases of 7–11 September

TurkStat published a total of eight separate bulletins over five days this week: Cultural Heritage Statistics on 7 September (in 2025, the number of museums rose 4.4% to 664 and the number of visitors reached 65.9 million); Real Rates of Return on Financial Investment Instruments on 8 September (bullion gold delivered the highest real return in August at 7.93%); the Construction Cost Index on 9 September (up 28.33% year-on-year and 1.15% month-on-month in July); the Industrial Production Index (down 0.3% year-on-year in July) and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Usage in Enterprises (17.1% of enterprises engaged in e-sales) on 10 September; and Turnover Indices (total turnover up 30.2% year-on-year in July), the Trade Sales Volume Index (trade sales volume down 0.6% year-on-year while retail sales volume rose 10.4%) and External Trade Statistics by Enterprise Characteristics (large-scale enterprises accounted for 46.1% of exports and 59.4% of imports in 2025) on 11 September.

BRSA / CMB — releases of 8, 9 and 10 September

According to banking-sector data for the week ending 4 September published by the BRSA on 10 September, total credit volume reached TRY 28.13 trillion (approximate breakdown: TRY-denominated loans TRY 17.8 trillion, FX-denominated loans TRY 10.2 trillion); TRY 21.2 trillion of this consisted of commercial loans (including TRY 7.5 trillion of SME loans), while TRY 6.9 trillion consisted of consumer loans and individual credit cards combined (TRY 3.46 trillion and TRY 3.47 trillion, respectively). The CMB, meanwhile, published Weekly Bulletins No. 2026/57 and 2026/58 on 8 and 9 September, respectively; transaction-level content in the bulletins was not separately analyzed within the scope in which this bulletin was prepared.

Table 1 — Official data released during the week (7–11 September 2026)

Regulatory Calendar

Economic Agenda

Credit ratings

No scheduled or unscheduled rating action on Türkiye was published this week by Moody's, Fitch, S&P, Scope, JCR or R&I.

International institutions

No new report or statement on the Turkish economy was published this week by the IMF, World Bank, OECD or EU.

Non-resident investor flows

According to CBRT data for the week ending 4 September, released on 10 September, non-residents recorded net equity sales of USD 647.6 million, net GDDS purchases of USD 156.7 million and net private-sector bond sales of USD 23.8 million. The opposite movements in equities and debt securities indicate that the foreign outflow was concentrated primarily in equities rather than across the portfolio as a whole.

Global backdrop

The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 10 September (deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65%, marginal lending facility 2.90%; effective 16 September), citing inflationary pressures fueled by the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed had no scheduled FOMC meeting this week; its next meeting will take place on 15-16 September. Brent crude's 8.5% weekly gain points to the same energy-price channel cited in the ECB's rationale; by contrast, gold per ounce lost around 1.8% over the same period as strong U.S. employment data supported the dollar, indicating that the week's price movements did not constitute a broad, one-directional "risk repricing" but instead reflected different commodity-specific dynamics (geopolitical supply concerns vs. dollar strength driven by employment data).

Next Week's Calendar

Table 2 — 14-18 September 2026

SENTENCE OF THE WEEK

Sources

This bulletin is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice; data are as of the dates stated in their respective sources.